The impact of imported cases on the persistence of contagious diseases

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dc.contributor.authorFerraz D.F.
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro L.H.A.
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-12T23:50:58Z
dc.date.available2024-03-12T23:50:58Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstract© 2019 Elsevier B.V.Contagious diseases can chronically persist in host populations. Here, this persistence is investigated by using an epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA). In this model, imported cases and vaccination are both considered. From a mean-field approximation written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE), it is shown that this model has a single stationary solution. This solution corresponds to an endemic equilibrium point, which is locally asymptotically stable. The impact of the imported cases on this attractive endemic solution is analytically estimated from the ODE system and numerically confirmed from computer simulations with the PCA model. The relevance of this study for controlling the spread of infectious diseases is discussed from a public health perspective.
dc.description.volume40
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecocom.2019.100788
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/35149
dc.relation.ispartofEcological Complexity
dc.rightsAcesso Restrito
dc.subject.otherlanguageContagious disease
dc.subject.otherlanguageImported cases
dc.subject.otherlanguageOrdinary differential equation
dc.subject.otherlanguageProbabilistic cellular automaton
dc.subject.otherlanguageSIR model
dc.titleThe impact of imported cases on the persistence of contagious diseases
dc.typeArtigo
local.scopus.citations9
local.scopus.eid2-s2.0-85073013889
local.scopus.updated2024-05-01
local.scopus.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85073013889&origin=inward
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