The impact of imported cases on the persistence of contagious diseases
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2019
Periódico
Ecological Complexity
Citações (Scopus)
9
Autores
Ferraz D.F.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Orientador
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Membros da banca
Programa
Resumo
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.Contagious diseases can chronically persist in host populations. Here, this persistence is investigated by using an epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA). In this model, imported cases and vaccination are both considered. From a mean-field approximation written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE), it is shown that this model has a single stationary solution. This solution corresponds to an endemic equilibrium point, which is locally asymptotically stable. The impact of the imported cases on this attractive endemic solution is analytically estimated from the ODE system and numerically confirmed from computer simulations with the PCA model. The relevance of this study for controlling the spread of infectious diseases is discussed from a public health perspective.