A análise da curva de Phillips no Brasil entre os anos de 1980 e 2022
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Tipo
TCC
Data de publicação
2023-12-07
Periódico
Citações (Scopus)
Autores
Mendes, Mateus Alexander Gomes
Orientador
Gamboa , Ulisses Monteiro Ruiz de
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Resumo
O presente trabalho apresenta como questão principal a verificação da existência de uma correlação negativa entre inflação e desemprego no Brasil durante o período de 1981 a 2022 conforme proposto pela teoria da curva de Phillips. Através de uma revisão de literaturas, primeiramente são apresentados os conceitos da curva de Phillips e suas alterações ao longo do tempo. Diversas revisões e refinamentos foram feitos nessa teoria. Alguns modelos incorporam expectativas adaptativas ou racionais dos agentes econômicos, reconhecendo que as expectativas sobre a inflação podem afetar o comportamento de salários e preços. Com o auxílio de ferramentas econométricas, foi verificada a aplicação da curva de Phillips ou não na economia brasileira no respectivo período. Os resultados obtidos no estudo apontam para uma significância da aplicabilidade da curva de Philips clássica no Brasil. Porém, no caso da curva de Phillips aceleracionista, não foi verificada significância estatística para a expectativa de inflação representada no modelo pela inflação passada. A principal explicação para os resultados evidenciados na pesquisa são os reflexos de um comportamento adotado pela população que, em sua maioria, não considera de modo relevante a inflação passada na formação da inflação corrente.
The present study addresses the main question of verifying the existence of a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment in Brazil during the period from 1981 to 2022, as proposed by the Phillips curve theory. Through a literature review, the concepts of the Phillips curve and its changes over time are first presented. Various revisions and refinements have been made to this theory. Some models incorporate adaptive or rational expectations of economic agents, recognizing that expectations about inflation can affect wage and price behavior. With the aid of econometric tools, the application of the Phillips curve in the Brazilian economy during the respective period was examined. The results obtained in the study point to the significance of the applicability of the classic Phillips curve in Brazil. However, in the case of the accelerationist Phillips curve, no statistical significance was found for the expectation of inflation represented in the model as past inflation. The main explanation for the results highlighted in the research is the reflection of a behavior adopted by the population, which, for the most part, does not consider past inflation as relevant in the formation of current inflation.
The present study addresses the main question of verifying the existence of a negative correlation between inflation and unemployment in Brazil during the period from 1981 to 2022, as proposed by the Phillips curve theory. Through a literature review, the concepts of the Phillips curve and its changes over time are first presented. Various revisions and refinements have been made to this theory. Some models incorporate adaptive or rational expectations of economic agents, recognizing that expectations about inflation can affect wage and price behavior. With the aid of econometric tools, the application of the Phillips curve in the Brazilian economy during the respective period was examined. The results obtained in the study point to the significance of the applicability of the classic Phillips curve in Brazil. However, in the case of the accelerationist Phillips curve, no statistical significance was found for the expectation of inflation represented in the model as past inflation. The main explanation for the results highlighted in the research is the reflection of a behavior adopted by the population, which, for the most part, does not consider past inflation as relevant in the formation of current inflation.
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Palavras-chave
curva de Phillips , desemprego , inflação , regressão linear , inflação esperada , economia brasileira , Phillips curve , unemployment , inflation , linear regression , expected inflation , Brazilian economy