The influence of immune individuals in disease spread evaluated by cellular automaton and genetic algorithm

Página do item simplificado
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro L.H.A.
dc.contributor.authorGandini D.M.
dc.contributor.authorSchimit P.H.T.
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-12T23:46:14Z
dc.date.available2024-03-12T23:46:14Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstract© 2020 Elsevier B.V.Background and objective: One of the main goals of epidemiological studies is to build models capable of forecasting the prevalence of a contagious disease, in order to propose public health policies for combating its propagation. Here, the aim is to evaluate the influence of immune individuals in the processes of contagion and recovery from varicella. This influence is usually neglected. Methods: An epidemic model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is introduced. By using a genetic algorithm, the values of three parameters of this model are determined from data of prevalence of varicella in Belgium and Italy, in a pre-vaccination period. Results: This methodology can predict the varicella prevalence (with average relative error of 2%−4%) in these two European countries. Belgium data can be explained by ignoring the role of immune individuals in the infection propagation; however, Italy data can be explained by considering contagion exclusively mediated by immune individuals. Conclusions: The role of immune individuals should be accurately delineated in investigations on the dynamics of disease propagation. In addition, the proposed methodology can be adapted for evaluating, for instance, the role of asymptomatic carriers in the novel coronavirus spread.
dc.description.volume196
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105707
dc.identifier.issn1872-7565
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/34882
dc.relation.ispartofComputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subject.otherlanguageCellular automaton
dc.subject.otherlanguageContagious disease
dc.subject.otherlanguageGenetic algorithm
dc.subject.otherlanguageSIR model
dc.titleThe influence of immune individuals in disease spread evaluated by cellular automaton and genetic algorithm
dc.typeArtigo
local.scopus.citations16
local.scopus.eid2-s2.0-85089755802
local.scopus.subjectAverage relative error
local.scopus.subjectContagious disease
local.scopus.subjectDisease propagation
local.scopus.subjectEpidemic modeling
local.scopus.subjectEpidemiological studies
local.scopus.subjectEuropean Countries
local.scopus.subjectProbabilistic cellular automatons
local.scopus.subjectPublic health policies
local.scopus.subjectAdaptive Immunity
local.scopus.subjectAlgorithms
local.scopus.subjectBelgium
local.scopus.subjectHerpesvirus 3, Human
local.scopus.subjectHumans
local.scopus.subjectItaly
local.scopus.subjectModels, Theoretical
local.scopus.subjectMutation
local.scopus.subjectPrevalence
local.scopus.subjectProbability
local.scopus.subjectReproducibility of Results
local.scopus.subjectSoftware
local.scopus.subjectVaricella Zoster Virus Infection
local.scopus.updated2024-05-01
local.scopus.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85089755802&origin=inward
Arquivos
Coleções
Artigos de periódico