The influence of immune individuals in disease spread evaluated by cellular automaton and genetic algorithm
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2020
Periódico
Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
Citações (Scopus)
16
Autores
Monteiro L.H.A.
Gandini D.M.
Schimit P.H.T.
Gandini D.M.
Schimit P.H.T.
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Resumo
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.Background and objective: One of the main goals of epidemiological studies is to build models capable of forecasting the prevalence of a contagious disease, in order to propose public health policies for combating its propagation. Here, the aim is to evaluate the influence of immune individuals in the processes of contagion and recovery from varicella. This influence is usually neglected. Methods: An epidemic model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is introduced. By using a genetic algorithm, the values of three parameters of this model are determined from data of prevalence of varicella in Belgium and Italy, in a pre-vaccination period. Results: This methodology can predict the varicella prevalence (with average relative error of 2%−4%) in these two European countries. Belgium data can be explained by ignoring the role of immune individuals in the infection propagation; however, Italy data can be explained by considering contagion exclusively mediated by immune individuals. Conclusions: The role of immune individuals should be accurately delineated in investigations on the dynamics of disease propagation. In addition, the proposed methodology can be adapted for evaluating, for instance, the role of asymptomatic carriers in the novel coronavirus spread.
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Assuntos Scopus
Average relative error , Contagious disease , Disease propagation , Epidemic modeling , Epidemiological studies , European Countries , Probabilistic cellular automatons , Public health policies , Adaptive Immunity , Algorithms , Belgium , Herpesvirus 3, Human , Humans , Italy , Models, Theoretical , Mutation , Prevalence , Probability , Reproducibility of Results , Software , Varicella Zoster Virus Infection