Vieses Cognitivos: Um estudo sobre o viés de confirmação e sua aplicabilidade na tomada de decisão no processo de execução do planejamento orçamentário.
Moraes, Daniela Correia Lins de
Cesar, Ana Maria Roux Valentini Coelho
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Costa, Daniel Fonseca
Costa, Daniel Fonseca
Controladoria e Finanças Empresariais
Work Objective: This study aimed to identify whether managers incur in the confirmation bias and in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic when making estimates of budget targets. It discusses the Prospect Theory, which encompasses concepts from cognitive psychology, going deeper into the contexts of economic and financial environments and their decision-making. The concepts of heuristics and cognitive biases in decision-making processes are explored, relating them to the fact that people rely more on loss than gain values to make a decision, thus nurturing a certain risk aversion. Methodology: The study is categorized as exploratory-descriptive in nature, using a quantitative approach. The sample consisted of a non-probabilistic sampling procedure, with 114 respondents, all of whom are responsible for the decision-making process in relation to budget planning in the companies in which they work. Data were collected through a questionnaire, with closed questions, sent through social media. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, using R and Excel software. Practical implications: With the execution of this work, a manual tool was developed as a product, containing proposals for actions to be taken (to do) and avoided (don't), in order to assist managers in training their teams, minimizing the risk of errors confirmation bias in budget planning. It is understood that this tool can also help decision makers to self-assess and, as a result, to avoid certain patterns that lead to decision biases, especially confirmation bias. Originality and contributions: This project brings as originality the discussion of topics of cognitive psychology and behavioral economics to the area of management accounting, specifically applied to the budget planning process and its complexity. It is understood that through the managed tool, a self-analysis contribution can be made by the respondent decision makers and other managers who are responsible for decision making in a budget process. The main objective of generating such a tool is that such decision makers can identify the patterns that lead them to decision biases, especially confirmation bias. Keywords:
finanças comportamentais , planejamento orçamentário , tomada de decisão , efeito incerteza , viés da confirmação
MORAES, Daniela Correia Lins de. Vieses Cognitivos: Um estudo sobre o viés de confirmação e sua aplicabilidade na tomada de decisão no processo de execução do planejamento orçamentário.. 2021. 103 f. Dissertação (Controladoria e Finanças Empresariais) - Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, São Paulo. 2021.