Modelo matemático para estimativa de prejuízos econômicos domiciliares causados por inundações: o caso do Jardim Pantanal
Arquivos
Tipo
Monografia
Data de publicação
2019-06
Periódico
Citações (Scopus)
Autores
Santos, Francielle Aparecida Soares dos
Barbosa, José Lindemberg Vidal
Cicolani, Matheus Dreher
Carmona, Rodrigo Morales Figueiró
Barbosa, José Lindemberg Vidal
Cicolani, Matheus Dreher
Carmona, Rodrigo Morales Figueiró
Orientador
Palini, Rita Cristina Cantoni
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Resumo
Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo matemático capaz de valorar os prejuízos aos
domicílios causados por inundações do bairro Jardim Pantanal, em São Paulo, para diferentes
períodos de retorno de vazões do Rio Tietê. O local de estudo foi escolhido devido à sua alta
vulnerabilidade social e ao seu histórico frequente de inundações, que se confunde com a própria
história do bairro. Para tanto, foram obtidas as informações topográficas e econômicas locais, através
de dados oficiais de Estado, que foram correlacionadas através de softwares de geoprocessamento e
de planilhas eletrônicas. Em seguida, a série histórica de cotas foi inserida na curva cota-vazão e as
vazões, pelo Método de Gumbel, extrapoladas para períodos de retorno usuais. Com as cotas médias
dos setores do terreno associadas às vazões extrapoladas, foram geoprocessadas manchas de
inundação atreladas ao respectivo risco hidrológico. Com os dados econômicos de cada setor do
terreno, modelou-se a relação prejuízo e cota e, desta forma, foi possível chegar à probabilidade de
perda dos domicílios padrões da região estudada. Para os prejuízos estimados, calculou-se o tempo
necessário para a recuperação do bem-estar social anterior a um evento de perda total,
desconsiderando os encargos sociais sobre a renda e os custos de subsistência; se inclusos,
aumentariam o tempo de recuperação. Ainda, considerando a alta suscetibilidade do local a enchentes,
estima-se que o tempo para recuperação total do prejuízo econômico é superior ao período de retorno
de eventos semelhantes. Por fim, discute-se medida não estrutural simples que permite uma solução
para o problema, dentre tantas outras.
The purpose of this Paper is to present a mathematical model capable of evaluating financial losses caused by flooding in households located in Jardim Pantanal, São Paulo, for different flow return periods of the Tietê River. The chosen area was determined by its high social vulnerability and history of catastrophic flooding, which is determinant to the neighborhood’s own history.Topographical and local Economic data, from Official São Paulo State’s statistics sources, were gathered and correlated through geoprocessing software and electronic spreadsheets. Water Levels time-series were modeled to a Level-Flow curve and the Flows, and Gumbel Method was used to extrapolate different flows to determined return periods. Average elevations of the census’ sectors were associated to the estimated flows, generating flooding areas maps corresponding to their hydrological risk respectively. Census’ sector economic data was set to model the correlation between losses and water levels, harnessing the probability of household losses of standard domiciles of the studied area. For the estimated losses, the time frame necessary for the previous social welfare recovery was calculated before the next flooding event, excluding social charges and subsistence costs; if included, recovery time increases. In addition, its high flooding susceptibility makes the previous social welfare recovery time of the studied area larger than similar return period events. Finally, we discuss a simple non-structural measure that allows a solution to the problem, among many others.
The purpose of this Paper is to present a mathematical model capable of evaluating financial losses caused by flooding in households located in Jardim Pantanal, São Paulo, for different flow return periods of the Tietê River. The chosen area was determined by its high social vulnerability and history of catastrophic flooding, which is determinant to the neighborhood’s own history.Topographical and local Economic data, from Official São Paulo State’s statistics sources, were gathered and correlated through geoprocessing software and electronic spreadsheets. Water Levels time-series were modeled to a Level-Flow curve and the Flows, and Gumbel Method was used to extrapolate different flows to determined return periods. Average elevations of the census’ sectors were associated to the estimated flows, generating flooding areas maps corresponding to their hydrological risk respectively. Census’ sector economic data was set to model the correlation between losses and water levels, harnessing the probability of household losses of standard domiciles of the studied area. For the estimated losses, the time frame necessary for the previous social welfare recovery was calculated before the next flooding event, excluding social charges and subsistence costs; if included, recovery time increases. In addition, its high flooding susceptibility makes the previous social welfare recovery time of the studied area larger than similar return period events. Finally, we discuss a simple non-structural measure that allows a solution to the problem, among many others.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
inundações , rio tietê , jardim pantanal , prejuízos , hidrologia , drenagem urbana , são miguel paulista , flooding , loss , hydrology , urban drainage , key-curve