An epidemiological model for SARS-CoV-2
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2020
Periódico
Ecological Complexity
Citações (Scopus)
9
Autores
Monteiro L.H.A.
Orientador
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Membros da banca
Programa
Resumo
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.The spread of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is here investigated from an epidemic model considering four pathways of person-to-person transmission. These pathways represent the propagation of this novel coronavirus by asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals. In this work, analytical expressions for the disease-free and endemic steady-states are derived. Also, the conditions for eradication of this contagious disease are determined. By taking into account realistic parameter values, the proposed model shows an oscillatory convergence to the endemic steady-state, which means the occurrence of a sequence of peaks in the number of sick individuals as time passes. These results are discussed from a public health standpoint.