Avaliação do uso de métodos de previsão de demanda em uma empresa de fast food
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Tipo
TCC
Data de publicação
2019-06
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Citações (Scopus)
Autores
Paz, Bárbara
Matias, Gabriela de Almeida
Matias, Gabriela de Almeida
Orientador
Gonçalves, Max Filipe Silva
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Resumo
A população global está crescendo constantemente, assim como o comércio alimentício também. Portanto, as empresas desse setor tem o grande desafio de estarem sempre a frente da concorrência para conseguir dominar o mercado e garantir seu sucesso. Em vista disso, as administrações das companhias viram a necessidade de implantar alternativas que viabilize o favorecimento, e consequentemente o aumento da lucratividade. A fim de alcançar o resultado almejado, é indispensável garantir a eficiência da logística e do planejamento de todas as atividades, principalmente relacionadas à previsão de demandas com o propósito de atender a seus clientes. Pois, na medida que uma entidade determina o valor otimizado para as vendas futuras de produtos e/ou serviços, a mesma tenderá a obter resultados mais satisfatórios nas compras realizadas, reduzir os custos de operação e ter retorno do capital investido. No estudo de caso realizado, foi avaliada a situação atual de uma empresa de fast food, onde foram priorizadas as seis categorias de alimentos de maior importância. Com o objetivo de analisar a eficiência do método de previsão de demanda utilizada pela companhia, comparou-se com outros três métodos disponíveis na literatura, bem como o grau de assertividade de cada uma delas em relação ao comportamento da demanda real para cada categoria em 2018. Concluiu-se que o método do último período foi o único que conseguiu obter resultados melhores que da empresa nas categorias Dairy Ice Cream, Dairy Cheese e Bakery&Pastry. Já para as categorias Beef, Potato e Beverage Soft, a projeção da empresa mostrou-se mais adequada. Apresentando para a companhia a possibilidade de integrar o método do último período em suas previsões de demandas, uma vez que mostrou ser eficiente para 50% das categorias estudadas.
The global population is growing steadily, as well as the food trade. So, the companies in this sector have the challenge to overcome competition to be able to dominate the market and ensure success. Therefore, the companies’ administrations saw the need to implement options that would enable competitive advantage, hence increasing profitability. In order to achieve the desired result, it’s necessary to guarantee the efficiency of logistics and planning of all activities, mainly those related to the demand forecast in order to serve the customers. As an entity determines the optimized value for future sales of products and/or sales, it will tend to obtain more satisfactory results in the purchases, reduce of operational costs and return on invested capital. In the case study carried out, the current situation of a fast food company was evaluated, and the six most important food categories were prioritized. Aiming to analyse the efficiency of the demand forecast method used by the company, the method was compared with other tree available in the literature as well as the assertiveness degree of each of them regarding the real demand behaviour for each category in 2018. It was concluded that the last period method was the only that was able to obtain better results than the company in the categories Dairy Ice Cream, Dairy Cheese and Bakery & Pastry. As for the categories Beef, Potato and Beverage Soft, the company’s projection proved to be more adequate. Presenting the possibility of integrating the last period method into the company’s demand forecasts, since it proved to be efficient for 50% of the studied categories.
The global population is growing steadily, as well as the food trade. So, the companies in this sector have the challenge to overcome competition to be able to dominate the market and ensure success. Therefore, the companies’ administrations saw the need to implement options that would enable competitive advantage, hence increasing profitability. In order to achieve the desired result, it’s necessary to guarantee the efficiency of logistics and planning of all activities, mainly those related to the demand forecast in order to serve the customers. As an entity determines the optimized value for future sales of products and/or sales, it will tend to obtain more satisfactory results in the purchases, reduce of operational costs and return on invested capital. In the case study carried out, the current situation of a fast food company was evaluated, and the six most important food categories were prioritized. Aiming to analyse the efficiency of the demand forecast method used by the company, the method was compared with other tree available in the literature as well as the assertiveness degree of each of them regarding the real demand behaviour for each category in 2018. It was concluded that the last period method was the only that was able to obtain better results than the company in the categories Dairy Ice Cream, Dairy Cheese and Bakery & Pastry. As for the categories Beef, Potato and Beverage Soft, the company’s projection proved to be more adequate. Presenting the possibility of integrating the last period method into the company’s demand forecasts, since it proved to be efficient for 50% of the studied categories.
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Palavras-chave
comércio alimentício , logística , planejamento , previsão de demanda , método do último período , food trade , logistics , planning , demand forecast , last period method