On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2009
Periódico
Ecological Modelling
Citações (Scopus)
52
Autores
Schimit P.H.T.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Orientador
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Membros da banca
Programa
Resumo
We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R0) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R0 cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Assuntos Scopus
Basic reproduction number , Clustering coefficients , Contact networks , Control strategies , Disease propagation , Epidemiological studies , Pca models , Probabilistic cellular automata , Random networks , Shortest paths , SIR model , Topological properties , Transient behaviors