Technical-economic analysis of the impact of post-harvesting systems and subsidized loans for coffee farms in Minas Gerais (Brazil)

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Custos e Agronegocio
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Bernardes P.A.C.S.
Aquila G.
Pamplona E.O.
Medeiros A.L.
Nakamura W.T.
da Silva A.S.
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© 2022, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco. All rights reserved.This study aimed to assess the economic feasibility and financial risks in a post-harvesting process center to provide services to small coffee producers. This is quantitative financial modeling, where were compared two investment alternatives, which are wet and dry processes with the possibility or not of loan support, in a rural property in the south of Minas Gerais. Initially, did the process mapping of the two alternatives, seeking to detail the steps for surveying the project costs. Subsequently, were modeled the cash flows of the two alternatives and the uncertainties regarding operational variables, the CAPEX, and the price of a coffee per bag were incorporated. The study resort on the estimative of the stochastic Net Present Value from a Monte Carlo Simulation for both dry and wet processing scenarios, with and without subsidized loans. Then, using ANOVA and the Levene test, we compared the returns and risks for the four scenarios. The results showed that, although wet processing had higher CAPEX values, operational efficiency and market premiums paid per coffee bag can compensate for higher investment costs. The statistical comparisons for the scenarios allowed us to identify that there was a significant difference in returns, but no significant difference in risk. Furthermore, subsidized loans improved returns, regardless of the adopted process.
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