On considering the influence of recovered individuals in disease propagations
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2016
Periódico
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Citações (Scopus)
5
Autores
Moraes A.L.S.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Orientador
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Membros da banca
Programa
Resumo
© 2015 Elsevier B.V.Consider diseases transmitted through personal contacts, for which recovery usually confers complete and long-lasting immunity, like some of the common viral infections of childhood. Here, an epidemic model based on differential equations is proposed to evaluate the influ-ence of the recovered (immune) individuals on the spread of such diseases. Indeed, immune individuals can affect the infection rate of susceptible individuals and the recovery rate of sick individuals. The predictive ability of the proposed model is assessed from records concerning the incidence of varicella in three European countries, in a pre-vaccination era.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Assuntos Scopus
Childhood infections , Disease propagation , Epidemic modeling , European Countries , Personal contacts , Predictive abilities , SIR model , Varicella