An epidemic model to evaluate the homogeneous mixing assumption
Tipo
Artigo
Data de publicação
2014
Periódico
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Citações (Scopus)
16
Autores
Turnes P.P.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Monteiro L.H.A.
Orientador
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Título de Volume
Membros da banca
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Resumo
Many epidemic models are written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). This approach relies on the homogeneous mixing assumption; that is, the topological structure of the contact network established by the individuals of the host population is not relevant to predict the spread of a pathogen in this population. Here, we propose an epidemic model based on ODE to study the propagation of contagious diseases conferring no immunity. The state variables of this model are the percentages of susceptible individuals, infectious individuals and empty space. We show that this dynamical system can experience transcritical and Hopf bifurcations. Then, we employ this model to evaluate the validity of the homogeneous mixing assumption by using real data related to the transmission of gonorrhea, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and obesity. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
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Assuntos Scopus
Contagious disease , Epidemic modeling , Gonorrhea , Hepatitis C virus , Human immunodeficiency virus , Obesity , Ordinary differential equation (ODE) , Topological structure