Análise da inadimplência no mercado de financiamento de automóveis no Brasil: uma proposta de adaptação do modelo KMV

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Tipo
Dissertação
Data
2010-03-01
Autores
Paula, Daniela Rezende de
Orientador
Mendonça Neto, Octavio Ribeiro de
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ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
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Programa
Controladoria Empresarial
Resumo
Sales of new cars in Brazil have increased significantly in the last decade, with average growth of 10% per year. Government incentives, such as tax reduction, were used as a forcing agent for the segment during the crisis period between 2008 and 2009. With the continuation of strong market, funding also increase . The objective of this research is to test, based on a study Securato (2003), who adapted the KMV model to study the probability of default for private companies, which is the default risk associated with the financing of vehicles, using as variables the relationship between debt and payment to the contractor for the good and the devaluation of the prices of passenger cars and light commercial market. The adaptation of the KMV model, however, showed no predictive ability for the market of auto finance.
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Palavras-chave
veículos , inadimplência , modelo KMV , vehicles , default , KMV model
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