Avaliando a influência de indivíduos imunes na propagação de doenças contagiosas
Tipo
Dissertação
Data de publicação
2016-02-01
Periódico
Citações (Scopus)
Autores
Moraes, Ana Leda Silva
Orientador
Monteiro, Luiz Henrique Alves
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Membros da banca
Omar, Nizam
Berlinck, José Guilherme de Souza Chaui Mattos
Berlinck, José Guilherme de Souza Chaui Mattos
Programa
Engenharia Elétrica
Resumo
Epidemiology is the science that studies the occurrence of diseases in a population. The
results of these studies allow a comprehension of a disease propagation and enable actions
in order to control epidemics. There are many mathematical models used in epidemiological
studies; in which SIR-like models are the most used. In this model, the population is
divided into three groups: S - susceptible individuals to infection, I - infected individuals,
and R - recovered individuals. The proposal of this thesis is, based on a new SIR model,
taking into consideration the effect of recovered individuals on the propagation of contagious
diseases and on the recovery of sick individuals. This can be relevant to the study
of propagation of typical diseases in children, since immune individuals can catalyze the
encounters among susceptible children and infected children, as well as to contribute to
the recovery of sick individuals. The predictive ability of the proposed model is evaluated
from the records refering to the incidence of chickenpox in Belgium, Germany and Italy,
in a pre-vaccination era.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
autômato celular probabilista , doenças contagiosas , epidemiologia , equações diferenciais ordinárias , modelo matemático , varicela , contagious diseases , epidemiology , mathematical model , ordinary differential equations , probabilistic cellular automaton , varicella
Assuntos Scopus
Citação
MORAES, Ana Leda Silva. Avaliando a influência de indivíduos imunes na propagação de doenças contagiosas. 2016. 56 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica) - Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, São Paulo, 2016.